Voters lower independence support

Jan 27 2013

Support for independence has dropped, with 60% of voters agreeing that Scotland would not automatically become a member of the EU, according to a new poll.

The Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times and Real Radio Scotland found 34% agreed the country should be independent, with 47% opposed.

The figures show those in favour of Scotland leaving the UK has fallen by 3% since October, with those voting to remain in the union up 2%. However, those who have still to make up their minds also increased by 2% to 19%.

The poll also put some of claims arising from the independence debate to voters, including the country's status in the EU, defence and North Sea oil revenues. It found 60% of the 800 respondents agreed an independent Scotland would not automatically become a member of the European Union.

When asked how it shaped their views on voting, one third said they would be less likely to vote yes if Scotland did not automatically become a member of the EU, while 28% said it would make them more likely to do so.

Almost half of those asked (49%) agreed independence would cost Scotland many defence jobs, with 24% disagreeing and 28% unsure. When asked if they thought claims that North Sea oil revenues are running out were true, 46% said yes while 37% disagreed.

On finances, 40% agreed an independent Scotland would be financially worse off than the rest of the UK, while 37% said it would not and 23% are unsure. However, a question on the European single currency revealed 52% said they did not agree with claims that an independent Scotland would have to join the Euro rather than keep the pound, with just 19% agreeing.

Ivor Knox, managing director of Panelbase, said: "While it's still early days, it looks like round one to the No campaign, with financial considerations at the heart of the debate."

The poll, which interviewed a sample of 1,004 Scots between January 11 and 21, also asked about voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament, which showed the SNP remains comfortably ahead on 45% in the constituency vote and 44% in the regional vote. It comes after a survey of social attitudes published last week, based on research from last year, put support for independence at just 23% - a return to a previous low point in 2010.

https://www.panelbase.net/(Panelbase)