Independence drive 'has challenge'

Jan 14 2013

The pro-independence campaign faces a considerable challenge to convince Scotland to vote Yes but has a sizeable base of undecided voters to build on, according to a poll.

The signing of the Edinburgh Agreement in October, which handed Scotland legal power to stage the referendum in 2014, saw a 5% drop in people who intend to vote No and a corresponding 5% rise in those who are undecided, found TNS BMRB.

Support for independence has remained fairly steady since October, at around 28%, while support for maintaining the UK has dropped from 53% to 48%. The number of people who do not know how they will vote rose from 19% to 24%.

"The main effect of the Edinburgh Agreement between Cameron and Salmond in October was an increase in the undecideds and slight decline in support from its peak of 53%, rather than any more positive influence on opinion," said TNS BMRB. "Similarly, the recent debate around automatic EU membership or not following independence has had no adverse effect on levels of support, which might suggest that these current levels of opposition and support are based much more on principle than the detail.

"They are a reflection of the heart rather than the head at this stage. While this gives the Yes campaign a sizeable base on which to build and a significant 24% undecided to attempt to win over, the gap of 20% remains large and, if the opposition is consolidating at around 48%, the challenge is considerable."

TNS BMRB said it adjusted its poll in recent months to include 16 and 17-year-olds because of the decision to widen the referendum franchise, but this has had no effect on overall opinion due to their low level of representation.

The poll has not been updated to reflect the SNP's choice of question: "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?" There "has been some debate about its neutrality", said TNS BMRB. The pollster has instead stuck with the same question it has asked since 2007: "Do you agree/disagree that the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state?"

Blair Jenkins, chief executive of pro-independence campaign Yes Scotland, said: "The key finding of this poll is that the No campaign has lost one in 10 of its support in just two months and there has been a switch of voting intentions from No to Don't Know; 5% more of the 1,000 polled say they are as yet undecided. This reflects the fact that increasing numbers of people are starting to think about what kind of Scotland they want for themselves and future generations, and are open to the idea of independence."

Labour constitution spokeswoman Patricia Ferguson said: "We are encouraged that support for the Union still has a 20-point lead in this poll and those who want to break up Britain will be alarmed at the seven-point drop in their support over the last year. This confirms that the people of Scotland are not responding to Alex Salmond's muddle-and-confusion tactics."

Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said: "This poll is yet another strong message to Alex Salmond that the people of Scotland don't believe his bluster and empty rhetoric on independence."